Home / Insights / Market Report Q2 2026
Quarterly market report · Q2 2026
One district, 52 projects, 21,324 registered homes. This is the read I give my own clients before they buy or sell here: what a square foot actually costs by vintage and district, what it rents for, what it costs to hold, and what 10,342 units of incoming supply do to all three. Published every quarter — this edition covers transactions to 30 June 2026.
01 · Capital values
Average recorded sale price per sqft, grouped by the year a building handed over. The pattern is consistent across the district: newer stock trades 25–35% above the 2018–2020 towers on a per-foot basis, and that gap has held through every quarter of the last two years.
AED per sqft, medians of recorded DLD transactions January–June 2026. Branded line covers Address, Palace and Vida stock, which prices on service and brand rather than vintage.
02 · Yield & holding cost
Service charge is the widest gap between gross and net return in this district — it varies by more than 2× between towers. Read the two columns together, never apart.
| District | Ready units | Typical gross yield | Service charge AED / sqft / yr | Net drag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Island District | 7,365 | 5.7 – 6.8% | 16.3 – 30.2 | ~0.9 pt |
| Creek Beach District | 3,179 | 6.3 – 6.5% | 23.3 | ~1.0 pt |
| Central Park | 154 | 6.5% | 24.4 | ~1.0 pt |
| The Canal District | 284 | 6.5% | 22.9 | ~1.0 pt |
| Branded stock (all districts) | 747 | 5.7 – 6.0% | 30.2 – 48.0 | ~1.6 pt |
Yields are gross, against current Ejari rents on comparable stock. Net drag is the reduction in yield from service charge alone on a 750 sqft one-bed at district-average pricing — district cooling is billed separately and is not included. Full rates for all 52 projects sit in the service charge directory.
03 · Supply
10,342 units are still to hand over across 20 projects — 94% of the volume already delivered here since 2018, arriving in four years rather than eight. 2028 carries 3,608 units and 2029 another 4,199 — the two biggest completion years this district has ever had, back to back.
Project-by-project detail, including which towers are still selling, is in the handover tracker.
04 · What I'd act on
Target completions in 2026–27, before the 2028 supply wave. A unit that hands over into a thin year sets its first rent without 3,600 competing units on the market — and first rent anchors every renewal after it.
The 2018–2020 Island towers still deliver the best net return: lower entry per sqft, service charges from AED 16.3, and tenant demand that has never had a soft quarter. Newer is not automatically better here.
Ready stock is the scarce commodity between now and 2028 — buyers who want keys cannot buy off-plan. That premium is real today and thins as each project completes.
Branded residences carry a 10–15% per-foot premium and roughly double the service charge. It holds on resale in the Island district; it is harder to recover elsewhere in the masterplan.
Method & sources. Transaction and rent figures are medians of recorded Dubai Land Department sale and Ejari registrations for the period 1 January – 30 June 2026, filtered to Dubai Creek Harbour. Unit counts, tower counts and floor counts for all 52 projects are taken from the DLD / RERA project database as reconfirmed in July 2026, not from portal estimates. Service charges are the current DLD / RERA index and Mollak filings; budgets are re-approved annually. Handover windows are developer guidance cross-checked against DLD project registration and escrow records, and off-plan dates move. Yields are gross unless stated. Figures are prepared for advisory use and rounded — for a specific unit I pull the exact Mollak statement and comparable set before you offer.
Next edition · Q3 2026
I send each quarter's numbers to owners and investors on the Creek a week early, with the building-level detail that doesn't go on the site.